{"locked":false,"live":true,"degraded":false,"generatedAt":"2026-11-15T02:11:24.451Z","updatedAt":"2026-11-15T02:11:24.451Z","sources":{"quotes":"新浪财经 · 期货连续合约 / Yahoo Finance BZ=F","coal":"焦煤主连 JM0 实时折算（与历史同口径）","coalDate":"2026-11-13","spotDate":"2026-11-13","stocks":"东方财富 push2delay 批量行情"},"quoteMeta":{"brent":{"chg":0.55,"pct":0.57,"date":"2026-11-14","proxy":null},"pp":{"chg":255,"pct":2.77,"date":"2026-11-13"},"pe":{"chg":210,"pct":2.51,"date":"2026-11-13"},"ma":{"date":"2026-11-13","snapshot":true}},"coalMeta":{"bspiPrev":741.87,"spotChg":17.72,"longTerm":{"price":670.22,"chg":84.76,"date":"2026-11-13"},"derived":true},"params":{"ctoCoalK":5.6,"ctoOther":2200,"mtoMaK":3,"mtoOther":1200,"oilBrentK":92,"oilFix":1000},"dcf":{"r":0.095,"g":0.02,"years":3,"A":12.72,"Alo":14.66,"Ahi":11.22},"now":{"brent":96.366,"coal":754.98,"coalSpot":1019.98,"pp":9447,"pe":8578,"ma":3266,"maSpot":null,"maBasis":null,"ole":9012.5,"cto":6427.89,"mto":10998,"oil":9865.67,"spread":2584.61,"sm":-1985.5,"smFut":-1985.5,"so":-853.17,"oc":3437.78,"pct":{"sc":73.11,"sm":1.7,"so":19.89,"oc":91.86},"mom":67.25,"band":3,"fwd":{"band":3,"lo":60,"hi":80,"n":80,"med":-4,"avg":-198,"up":50},"fwd5":{"band":4,"lo":80,"hi":100,"n":89,"med":145,"avg":-46,"up":66.3},"cycle":{"z":0.74,"pctl":73.11,"dev":60.33,"mu3":1822.91,"sd3":1035.03,"mid3":1612.06},"live":true,"implied":290.06,"impliedPctl":3.98},"stats":{"fwd":[{"band":0,"lo":0,"hi":20,"n":231,"med":103,"avg":135,"up":60.2},{"band":1,"lo":20,"hi":40,"n":102,"med":-71,"avg":39,"up":45.1},{"band":2,"lo":40,"hi":60,"n":62,"med":221,"avg":-70,"up":59.7},{"band":3,"lo":60,"hi":80,"n":80,"med":-4,"avg":-198,"up":50},{"band":4,"lo":80,"hi":100,"n":40,"med":-723,"avg":-677,"up":15}],"curBand":3,"start":"2016-10","mom":67.25,"fwd5":[{"band":0,"lo":0,"hi":20,"n":0,"med":null,"avg":null,"up":null},{"band":1,"lo":20,"hi":40,"n":25,"med":855,"avg":915,"up":76},{"band":2,"lo":40,"hi":60,"n":15,"med":-338,"avg":22,"up":40},{"band":3,"lo":60,"hi":80,"n":14,"med":614,"avg":308,"up":71.4},{"band":4,"lo":80,"hi":100,"n":89,"med":145,"avg":-46,"up":66.3}]},"companies":[{"name":"宝丰能源","code":"600989","short":"宝丰","tag":"丰","color":"#b06a2c","upstream":false,"unit":3063.75,"elasticity":5.64,"mProfit":21.53,"annual":258.32,"annualMid":201.7,"peNow":5.8,"peMid":7.43,"pe":7.85,"price":20.44,"px20":-8.75,"lastQ":"2026Q3","lastActual":49.18,"qoq":31.31,"delta":972.55,"dir10":77.78,"mape":21.35,"grade":"B","rows":[{"q":"2024Q4","ded":18.74,"model":20.33},{"q":"2025Q1","ded":25.97,"model":27.19},{"q":"2025Q2","ded":29.82,"model":33.53},{"q":"2025Q3","ded":33.92,"model":31.7},{"q":"2025Q4","ded":25.48,"model":30.25},{"q":"2026Q1","ded":34,"model":32.53},{"q":"2026Q2","ded":58.1,"model":40.67},{"q":"2026Q3","ded":49.18,"model":37.38}],"val":{"pts":[[2043.56,34.43],[2585.24,31.11],[2577.73,24.41],[2608.18,26.13],[1943.9,27.59],[2015.57,24.19],[2031.22,24.49],[1834.88,27],[1397.23,24.87],[923.49,22.59],[843.27,21.5],[1155,22.38],[912.5,20.4],[886.84,19.38],[494,19.6],[476.5,18.33],[422,18.5],[496,18.48],[805,19.91],[849,18.18],[894,18],[853.5,19.5],[945.5,21.73],[946.5,20.81],[697,22.1],[928,20.69],[670.5,18.75],[619,20.14],[864.5,19.01],[971.5,19.37],[1300,21.4],[1649.5,19.55],[2511,18.82],[2408,18.79],[2175.5,16.72],[1564,17.2],[1202,15.77],[1241.5,15.34],[1324.5,15.33],[1074,17.57],[910,17.43],[749.5,18.36],[580,17.8],[810,19.39],[895,19.26],[812.5,18.75],[1044.5,18.35],[1133,17.38],[1231,17.42],[1159.5,17.19],[1159.5,17.19],[1187.5,19.23],[1027,18.66],[1153.5,18.69],[1518.5,19.3],[1718.5,18.13],[1437,15.43],[1569.5,15.61],[1409,15.61],[1343,16.52],[1232,16.69],[1293,14.73],[1223.5,14.59],[1297,14.38],[1094,14.66],[932.5,15.21],[1239.5,15.72],[1449,16.05],[1499,17.18],[1104.5,16.52],[801.5,15.13],[821,15.31],[822.5,14.71],[104.5,13.74],[219.5,14.31],[603,13.92],[315,14.02],[370,14.06],[140,13.52],[267.5,14.01],[268,13.37],[655.5,13.58],[542.5,12.4],[449,14.08],[503,13.29],[503,13.29],[312,13.1],[126,12.75],[140.5,12.62],[252.5,13.57],[269.5,13.98],[339,13.48],[345,14.4],[466,13.71],[419.5,14.68],[540.5,13.99],[271.5,12.75],[472,12.42],[343,12.79],[562.5,13.04],[815,13.69],[815,13.69],[601,14.13],[468,15.18],[525,15.53],[606.5,15.91],[603,16.63],[425.5,17.93],[275,17.24],[287,17.14],[418.5,17.16],[468.94,16.85],[1123.01,16.39],[1330.5,16.53],[1462.26,16.83],[1425.7,16.62],[1238.2,16.3],[1212.25,16.55],[1380.72,15.95],[1448.52,15.97],[1358.28,16.08],[1150.23,16.81],[1305.24,16.29],[1310.16,16.11],[1519.65,16.29],[1384.26,17.23],[1063.93,17.33],[1282.43,18.25],[1292,17.74],[1235.85,17.68],[1583.53,17.45],[1392.42,17.32],[1158.14,22.83],[1045.16,23.12],[673.5,23.17],[572,22.74],[476.5,23.08],[476.5,23.08],[459.68,22.96],[496.87,22.32],[359,23.06],[445,21.8],[416,21.74],[413,21.84],[178,22.39],[167,21.57],[242.5,21.21],[286,21.48],[412,22.18],[400,22.47],[232,22.21],[191.74,22.1],[259.5,21.45],[415.08,21.22],[479.77,20.17],[500.62,21.46],[500.62,21.46],[412.82,22.51],[447.2,23.21],[527.56,23.72],[1138.35,23.31],[792.11,20.4],[1283.59,21.22],[1434.58,21.97],[750.82,21.93],[561.08,22.05],[520,20.77],[550.33,20.67],[638.56,21.28],[937.79,21.17],[636,20.71],[1137.44,20.46],[1103.33,20.39],[1060.17,20.61],[1340.57,20.34],[1363.92,21.59],[1356.92,21.63],[1220.26,21.74],[1268.56,21.93],[1378.59,19.01],[1591.3,15.92],[1553.66,16.8],[1611.17,16.86],[1698.86,16.72],[1663.32,16.67],[1825.23,15.76],[1656.08,15.82],[1678.85,16.11],[1424.31,17.91],[1154.23,18.99],[1422.4,18.4],[1659.16,17.23],[1640.4,17.66],[1671.77,18.76],[1767.38,19.14],[1946.1,18.35],[2019.5,18.67],[2105.62,18.81],[2243.97,18.49],[2191.25,18.4],[2112.83,17.94],[2175.08,18.96],[2183.11,19.19],[2253.07,19.27],[2020.26,19.87],[2014.02,19.01],[2048.26,20.42],[1999.44,19.19],[2219.2,19.34],[2110.98,18.29],[2229.18,19.27],[2219.02,19.79],[2143.85,20.25],[2287,20.23],[2311.4,17.7],[2377.99,17.81],[2398.24,17.82],[2134.96,17.69],[2114.71,15.61],[2128.08,15.99],[2193.32,15.61],[2459.79,16.26],[2461.64,16.35],[2477.5,15.96],[2508.18,16.42],[2697.94,16.56],[2792.74,16.45],[2512.46,16.21],[2513.48,15.97],[2297.54,15.56],[2193.85,15.71],[1439.42,16.05],[1797.64,15.55],[1370.94,15.45],[1403.65,15.49],[1594.96,13.63],[1548.77,14.54],[1499.21,14.84],[1478.37,14.51],[1221.77,13.95],[1310.6,13.98],[1494.19,14.92],[1268.37,15.27],[1048.51,14.18],[947.28,12.35],[766.12,12.58],[701.61,13.19],[961.32,13.22],[1122.78,12.24],[1264.06,12.28],[931.08,12.76],[1140.41,12.1],[811.11,12.49],[901.04,12.88],[934.06,13.39],[881.51,13.53],[954.97,14.23],[1161.13,15.32],[1324.06,16.21],[1206.51,15.42],[1112.42,15.71],[1112.42,15.71],[1191.22,16.32],[2244.54,19.53],[2848.42,22.42],[3277.97,20.59],[3308.96,19.45],[3630.89,18.48],[3080.88,19.31],[2476.91,17.93],[2359.43,17.43],[2655.66,17.9],[2330.12,16.11],[2592.32,16.61],[2743.95,15.48],[2190.58,14],[1828.31,13.66],[2022.32,13.47],[1492.2,12.54],[1129.28,12.1],[1101.38,11.98],[1495.84,11.85],[1927.55,12.42],[2254.54,13.64],[2356.13,13.58],[2024.94,13.8],[1545.33,10.93],[1145.9,11.49],[867.85,11.69],[1368.15,11.65],[1883.15,11.44],[1916.55,11.26],[1799.42,10.66],[1956.71,10.72],[2404.32,11.1],[2448.78,10.69],[2840.38,9.36],[3645.45,9.79],[2834.03,9.32],[2584.61,8.97]],"corr":-0.03},"cap":1498.94,"histMid":1612.06,"extrap":false,"accuracy":{"name":"宝丰能源","grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":8,"n":28,"mape":21.35,"dir":77.78,"bias":3.01,"dropped":2,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":75,"width":70.39},"byYear":{"2019":6.2,"2020":26.6,"2021":19.7,"2022":42,"2023":42.5,"2024":12.6,"2025":11.7,"2026":25},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":6,"front":21.23,"back":12.49,"backBest":12.49,"degrade":-8.74}},"implied":290.06,"impliedLo":-372.67,"impliedHi":960.02,"impliedPctl":3.98,"impliedAnnual":117.84},{"name":"中国神华","code":"601088","short":"神华","tag":"神","color":"#1f3a5f","upstream":true,"unit":94.79,"elasticity":0,"mProfit":45.26,"annual":543.12,"annualMid":544.6,"peNow":19.97,"peMid":19.91,"pe":18.32,"price":50,"px20":0,"lastQ":"2026Q3","lastActual":159.13,"qoq":-14.67,"delta":58.1,"dir10":81.82,"mape":17.39,"grade":"A","rows":[{"q":"2024Q4","ded":140.91,"model":133.82},{"q":"2025Q1","ded":117.05,"model":106.5},{"q":"2025Q2","ded":126.07,"model":150.68},{"q":"2025Q3","ded":143.92,"model":147.77},{"q":"2025Q4","ded":98.85,"model":36.01},{"q":"2026Q1","ded":107.12,"model":108.87},{"q":"2026Q2","ded":161.83,"model":187.42},{"q":"2026Q3","ded":159.13,"model":172.54}],"val":{"pts":[[822.4,9.07],[773.35,8.89],[777.28,9.1],[789.61,9.29],[838.41,9.35],[818.47,9.07],[823.71,10.03],[825.29,9.9],[883.53,10.05],[915.27,9.92],[930.22,9.32],[950,9.71],[950,9.68],[892.44,9.53],[944.91,9.66],[950,9.83],[950,9.98],[950,9.62],[950,9.85],[950,9.35],[950,9.69],[950,8.77],[950,8.62],[950,8.24],[950,8.5],[950,8.71],[950,8.37],[950,8.81],[950,8.91],[950,9.99],[950,9.64],[950,9.77],[950,10.11],[950,9.55],[950,9.8],[950,9.65],[950,8.52],[950,8.36],[950,8.19],[950,8.29],[950,8.45],[950,9.69],[950,9.3],[950,9.44],[950,9.63],[950,9.65],[950,9.65],[950,9.65],[950,10.29],[950,9.66],[950,9.66],[950,11.19],[950,11.05],[950,10.53],[950,11.67],[950,11.53],[950,10.73],[950,11.65],[950,11.67],[950,12.08],[950,12.26],[950,11.73],[950,10.61],[950,10.43],[950,10.62],[950,11.16],[950,11.89],[950,11.45],[950,12],[950,11.23],[950,10.76],[950,11.42],[950,11.54],[950,10.26],[950,9.77],[950,9.69],[950,9.41],[950,9.98],[950,10.24],[950,10.78],[950,9.32],[950,9.95],[950,9.41],[950,9.47],[950,9.61],[950,9.61],[950,9.58],[950,9.36],[950,8.92],[950,8.61],[950,8.64],[950,8.19],[950,8.76],[950,8.51],[950,8.43],[950,8.27],[950,8.01],[950,8],[950,8],[950,8.39],[950,8.31],[950,8.31],[950,8.18],[950,8.02],[950,7.83],[950,8.06],[950,8.24],[950,8.14],[950,8.27],[950,8.39],[950,8.04],[927.6,7.92],[813.48,8.1],[779.91,8.28],[726.65,8.3],[709.34,8.57],[709.34,8.85],[705.67,8.87],[662.64,8.41],[669.46,8.11],[676.29,8.45],[734.78,8.6],[709.6,8.55],[708.81,8.82],[687.83,8.23],[747.9,8.28],[787.78,7.94],[779.12,8.15],[771.25,7.98],[778.33,7.89],[741.87,7.85],[791.71,8],[853.1,9.25],[861.49,9.47],[950,10.03],[950,10.06],[950,10.04],[950,10.04],[908.45,9.9],[892.97,9.9],[950,9.77],[950,10.27],[950,10.52],[950,10.42],[950,10.5],[950,10.66],[950,10.34],[950,10.29],[950,10.61],[950,10.6],[950,11.31],[938.35,11.37],[950,11.25],[933.11,12.11],[896.38,12.52],[916.05,12.88],[916.05,12.88],[926.55,13.48],[934.16,12.98],[907.4,13.44],[820.83,12.62],[873.82,12.83],[780.43,13.01],[772.04,13.18],[896.64,13.22],[945.7,13.94],[950,13.16],[947.53,13.89],[919.99,14.29],[904.77,13.91],[950,14.41],[876.44,14.76],[858.87,15.4],[869.88,15.47],[818.47,15.38],[825.55,15.48],[816.89,15.73],[824.24,14.37],[809.81,14.64],[780.43,14.23],[748.16,13.64],[730.06,13.62],[704.88,14.14],[689.4,14.05],[719.05,14.14],[646.12,13.52],[665.79,13.45],[668.42,13.68],[735.57,14.86],[811.12,15.49],[778.59,15.14],[708.81,14.92],[710.91,14.54],[701.47,14.19],[693.86,13.89],[661.59,13.87],[673.66,13.75],[653.46,13.81],[614.38,14.63],[608.08,14.72],[608.87,14.28],[598.11,14.58],[602.57,14.54],[568.47,13.54],[616.74,13.69],[593.39,13.5],[595.49,13.82],[605.19,13.44],[569.25,13.18],[592.86,12.23],[573.45,12.25],[568.21,12.4],[570.83,12.84],[529.91,12.65],[537.25,12.81],[525.18,13.19],[468.26,12.88],[499.74,13.27],[501.57,13.1],[488.2,13.58],[460.39,13.77],[447.27,13.99],[420.51,14.07],[400,14.02],[408.45,14.01],[406.35,13.92],[417.1,13.98],[444.65,14.15],[440.45,14.55],[479.01,13.04],[485.83,13.26],[660.55,13.62],[573.19,13.31],[643.76,13.31],[645.33,13.31],[609.65,13.65],[603.88,13.28],[607.82,13.71],[600.47,13.57],[646.38,13.87],[627.75,13.93],[590.77,13.83],[609.13,14.29],[618.57,15.05],[655.04,15.27],[674.71,15.54],[666.32,15.99],[625.39,15.39],[578.7,15.38],[559.81,15.04],[598.11,15.18],[533.32,14.63],[581.32,14.84],[585.26,14.65],[584.99,14.81],[627.23,15.52],[614.38,14.99],[607.03,14.63],[606.24,15.33],[597.32,15.24],[588.14,15.16],[588.14,15.16],[573.71,15.45],[589.19,16.76],[618.05,17.89],[614.38,19.36],[639.56,18.56],[583.68,19.11],[554.04,19.03],[643.23,18.69],[660.28,19.37],[675.24,20.19],[674.71,19],[642.71,19.22],[609.92,18.92],[674.45,19.73],[765.48,20.41],[719.05,19.41],[666.84,17.35],[655.04,16.64],[672.61,17.12],[659.76,17.68],[661.33,18.49],[674.19,19.22],[619.62,19.22],[665.01,18.48],[795.12,18.81],[829.75,19.52],[854.67,20.03],[874.08,19.13],[831.58,19.09],[780.17,18.58],[791.71,19.3],[760.23,19.21],[807.71,19.45],[777.54,20.48],[748.95,20.17],[741.08,20.7],[741.87,19.33],[754.98,19.91]],"corr":-0.55},"cap":10844.72,"histMid":696.88,"extrap":false,"accuracy":{"name":"中国神华","grade":"A","model":"flat","window":4,"n":34,"mape":17.39,"dir":81.82,"bias":2.08,"dropped":2,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":91.18,"width":64.88},"byYear":{"2018":25.8,"2019":41.7,"2020":27.8,"2021":30.5,"2022":32.3,"2023":8.7,"2024":7.5,"2025":20.3,"2026":16.3},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":16,"front":33.01,"back":10.43,"backBest":10.43,"degrade":-22.58}}},{"name":"华鲁恒升","code":"600426","short":"华鲁","tag":"鲁","color":"#7d6b8a","upstream":false,"unit":1089.7,"elasticity":0.55,"mProfit":4.11,"annual":49.32,"annualMid":43.83,"peNow":10.08,"peMid":11.34,"pe":11.76,"price":18.08,"px20":-3.21,"lastQ":"2026Q3","lastActual":8.14,"qoq":51.47,"delta":972.55,"dir10":62.96,"mape":28.53,"grade":"B","rows":[{"q":"2024Q4","ded":8.11,"model":10.35},{"q":"2025Q1","ded":7.03,"model":9.19},{"q":"2025Q2","ded":8.56,"model":10.05},{"q":"2025Q3","ded":7.97,"model":9.78},{"q":"2025Q4","ded":9.33,"model":10.06},{"q":"2026Q1","ded":11.13,"model":10.35},{"q":"2026Q2","ded":12.33,"model":9.64},{"q":"2026Q3","ded":8.14,"model":10.15}],"val":{"pts":[[2043.56,43.18],[2585.24,37.81],[2577.73,33.79],[2608.18,33.21],[1943.9,31.09],[2015.57,31.09],[2031.22,34.05],[1834.88,32.09],[1397.23,32.56],[923.49,21.42],[843.27,21.55],[1155,22.91],[912.5,20.69],[886.84,20.06],[494,20.37],[476.5,23.07],[422,24.71],[496,22.81],[805,23.47],[849,21.53],[894,26.29],[853.5,26.29],[945.5,24.42],[946.5,22.2],[697,23.38],[928,26.76],[670.5,23.15],[619,25.51],[864.5,15.79],[971.5,17.02],[1300,17.1],[1649.5,15.6],[2511,14.81],[2408,15.1],[2175.5,14.71],[1564,14.67],[1202,10.73],[1241.5,9.7],[1324.5,9.87],[1074,10.34],[910,10.29],[749.5,9.99],[580,10.51],[810,11.26],[895,11.29],[812.5,10.8],[1044.5,10.5],[1133,10.19],[1231,10.59],[1159.5,10.43],[1159.5,10.43],[1187.5,12.05],[1027,12.21],[1153.5,12.13],[1518.5,10.47],[1718.5,9.43],[1437,9.39],[1569.5,9.29],[1409,9.69],[1343,9.98],[1232,9.78],[1293,9.11],[1223.5,8.84],[1297,8.06],[1094,7.79],[932.5,8.03],[1239.5,7.69],[1449,7.52],[1499,7.79],[1104.5,7.97],[801.5,7.66],[821,7.59],[822.5,7.31],[104.5,7.15],[219.5,7.46],[603,7.47],[315,7.13],[370,7.66],[140,7.3],[267.5,7.71],[268,7.49],[655.5,8.07],[542.5,7.82],[449,7.73],[503,7.78],[503,7.78],[312,7.71],[126,7.71],[140.5,8.09],[252.5,8.38],[269.5,8.68],[339,8.79],[345,9.36],[466,9.57],[419.5,9.56],[540.5,9.45],[271.5,9.44],[472,9.81],[343,9.7],[562.5,10.12],[815,10.21],[815,10.21],[601,10.47],[468,10.65],[525,11.17],[606.5,10.84],[603,10.65],[425.5,10.34],[275,10.06],[287,9.76],[418.5,11.9],[468.94,11.86],[1123.01,11.03],[1330.5,10.62],[1462.26,14.58],[1425.7,14.08],[1238.2,13.68],[1212.25,13.53],[1380.72,14.01],[1448.52,13.88],[1358.28,13.59],[1150.23,14.32],[1305.24,13.7],[1310.16,14.01],[1519.65,14.46],[1384.26,15.51],[1063.93,15.12],[1282.43,15.28],[1292,15.09],[1235.85,14.66],[1583.53,14.72],[1392.42,14.56],[1158.14,20.75],[1045.16,19.99],[673.5,19.95],[572,19.61],[476.5,19.53],[476.5,19.53],[459.68,19.36],[496.87,18.88],[359,18.94],[445,17.86],[416,17.73],[413,17.22],[178,17.57],[167,16.55],[242.5,16.47],[286,16.12],[412,15.36],[400,15.91],[232,15.68],[191.74,15.15],[259.5,14.45],[415.08,14.62],[479.77,13.91],[500.62,15.25],[500.62,15.25],[412.82,15.7],[447.2,15.82],[527.56,15.17],[1138.35,14.92],[792.11,14.06],[1283.59,15.08],[1434.58,16.03],[750.82,15.77],[561.08,17.02],[520,15.62],[550.33,16.39],[638.56,16.81],[937.79,16.16],[636,15.97],[1137.44,15.81],[1103.33,15.54],[1060.17,15.29],[1340.57,14.79],[1363.92,14.66],[1356.92,14.16],[1220.26,14.73],[1268.56,14.8],[1378.59,13.45],[1591.3,12.91],[1553.66,12.92],[1611.17,12.27],[1698.86,11.76],[1663.32,11.86],[1825.23,10.89],[1656.08,10.36],[1678.85,10.67],[1424.31,12.67],[1154.23,13.59],[1422.4,12.27],[1659.16,12.04],[1640.4,12.14],[1671.77,13.49],[1767.38,13.92],[1946.1,13],[2019.5,12.62],[2105.62,12.66],[2243.97,13],[2191.25,12.95],[2112.83,12.74],[2175.08,12.56],[2183.11,12.03],[2253.07,11.42],[2020.26,11.98],[2014.02,11.83],[2048.26,12.05],[1999.44,12.13],[2219.2,12.12],[2110.98,11.55],[2229.18,11.8],[2219.02,11.87],[2143.85,12.56],[2287,12.35],[2311.4,12.52],[2377.99,12.05],[2398.24,11.42],[2134.96,11.29],[2114.71,11.41],[2128.08,12.22],[2193.32,12.4],[2459.79,12.42],[2461.64,12.25],[2477.5,12.47],[2508.18,13.12],[2697.94,13.57],[2792.74,13.08],[2512.46,13.01],[2513.48,12.96],[2297.54,12.76],[2193.85,13.3],[1439.42,14.41],[1797.64,14.28],[1370.94,14.27],[1403.65,14.65],[1594.96,14.85],[1548.77,17.94],[1499.21,17.21],[1478.37,17.3],[1221.77,17.34],[1310.6,16.69],[1494.19,17.4],[1268.37,17.67],[1048.51,16.1],[947.28,16.25],[766.12,16.89],[701.61,17.48],[961.32,19.07],[1122.78,18.03],[1264.06,18.6],[931.08,19.33],[1140.41,18.12],[811.11,19.66],[901.04,20.29],[934.06,20.68],[881.51,21.88],[954.97,22.62],[1161.13,24.85],[1324.06,24.68],[1206.51,23.71],[1112.42,23.44],[1112.42,23.44],[1191.22,25.39],[2244.54,26.9],[2848.42,27.24],[3277.97,23.39],[3308.96,23.89],[3630.89,22.48],[3080.88,24.44],[2476.91,22.63],[2359.43,24.09],[2655.66,21.94],[2330.12,20.16],[2592.32,19.48],[2743.95,17.84],[2190.58,16.71],[1828.31,15.64],[2022.32,16.09],[1492.2,14.49],[1129.28,14.25],[1101.38,14.13],[1495.84,13.75],[1927.55,14.28],[2254.54,15.27],[2356.13,15.91],[2024.94,15.58],[1545.33,15.21],[1145.9,13.93],[867.85,14.63],[1368.15,13.97],[1883.15,13.33],[1916.55,13.06],[1799.42,13.22],[1956.71,13.03],[2404.32,13.5],[2448.78,12.7],[2840.38,12.83],[3645.45,12.74],[2834.03,13.45],[2584.61,12.09]],"corr":0.2},"cap":497.19,"histMid":1612.06,"extrap":false,"accuracy":{"name":"华鲁恒升","grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":6,"n":28,"mape":28.53,"dir":62.96,"bias":3.77,"dropped":4,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":75,"width":101.02},"byYear":{"2019":22,"2020":30.4,"2021":27.9,"2022":32.3,"2023":51.6,"2024":47,"2025":32.7,"2026":33.9},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":0,"front":27.81,"back":21.86,"backBest":21.86,"degrade":-5.95}}},{"name":"中煤能源","code":"601898","short":"中煤","tag":"煤","color":"#5a6b7d","upstream":true,"unit":86.68,"elasticity":22.2,"mProfit":16.49,"annual":197.84,"annualMid":184.73,"peNow":8.73,"peMid":9.35,"pe":10.16,"price":13.03,"px20":-11.66,"lastQ":"2026Q3","lastActual":45.9,"qoq":7.76,"delta":58.1,"dir10":74.07,"mape":28.52,"grade":"B","rows":[{"q":"2024Q4","ded":46.79,"model":59.15},{"q":"2025Q1","ded":39.41,"model":47.76},{"q":"2025Q2","ded":37.1,"model":47.33},{"q":"2025Q3","ded":47.42,"model":44.85},{"q":"2025Q4","ded":53.25,"model":46.18},{"q":"2026Q1","ded":38.48,"model":42.18},{"q":"2026Q2","ded":46.96,"model":47.31},{"q":"2026Q3","ded":45.9,"model":50.5}],"val":{"pts":[[822.4,13.99],[773.35,16.46],[777.28,16.76],[789.61,17.65],[838.41,18.05],[818.47,13.11],[823.71,13.74],[825.29,15.07],[883.53,15.88],[915.27,10.74],[930.22,10.59],[950,11.97],[950,11.83],[892.44,11.35],[944.91,10.94],[950,11.18],[950,11.45],[950,10.98],[950,12.07],[950,10.5],[950,10.21],[950,12.07],[950,12.03],[950,11],[950,10.5],[950,10.97],[950,10.38],[950,8.99],[950,9.66],[950,10.8],[950,10.85],[950,10.65],[950,10.7],[950,10.21],[950,9.65],[950,9.37],[950,6.8],[950,6.32],[950,6.02],[950,5.99],[950,5.91],[950,6.36],[950,6.29],[950,6.91],[950,6.57],[950,6.13],[950,6.28],[950,6.21],[950,6.49],[950,5.83],[950,5.83],[950,6.69],[950,6.71],[950,6.49],[950,7.71],[950,7.46],[950,7.07],[950,7.63],[950,8.07],[950,8.1],[950,9.92],[950,9.07],[950,7.53],[950,7.54],[950,7.5],[950,7.82],[950,8.25],[950,7.92],[950,9.01],[950,8.49],[950,7.85],[950,8.28],[950,8.14],[950,7.35],[950,7.29],[950,7],[950,6.82],[950,7.42],[950,7.54],[950,7.05],[950,7],[950,7.58],[950,7.05],[950,7.79],[950,7.41],[950,7.41],[950,7.03],[950,6.79],[950,5.86],[950,5.86],[950,5.93],[950,5.67],[950,6.06],[950,6.06],[950,5.99],[950,5.88],[950,5.53],[950,5.52],[950,5.42],[950,5.59],[950,5.66],[950,5.66],[950,5.54],[950,5.4],[950,5.38],[950,5.65],[950,5.71],[950,5.45],[950,5.58],[950,6.01],[950,5.74],[927.6,5.76],[813.48,5.83],[779.91,6.34],[726.65,6.42],[709.34,6.36],[709.34,6.48],[705.67,6.57],[662.64,6.07],[669.46,5.88],[676.29,6.09],[734.78,6.02],[709.6,5.75],[708.81,6.02],[687.83,6.29],[747.9,6.28],[787.78,6.26],[779.12,6.02],[771.25,5.89],[778.33,5.87],[741.87,5.81],[791.71,6.32],[853.1,6.58],[861.49,6.7],[950,7.04],[950,6.92],[950,6.94],[950,6.94],[908.45,6.72],[892.97,6.92],[950,7.39],[950,7.24],[950,7.46],[950,7.36],[950,7.62],[950,8.06],[950,8.12],[950,8.07],[950,8.11],[950,8.24],[950,8.97],[938.35,8.97],[950,8.99],[933.11,10.32],[896.38,10.18],[916.05,10.15],[916.05,10.15],[926.55,11.16],[934.16,10.45],[907.4,10.66],[820.83,10.27],[873.82,7.68],[780.43,7.76],[772.04,8],[896.64,8.03],[945.7,8.49],[950,8.7],[947.53,8.99],[919.99,9.45],[904.77,9.16],[950,9.46],[876.44,10.15],[858.87,9.88],[869.88,9.92],[818.47,9.82],[825.55,9.54],[816.89,9.65],[824.24,9.01],[809.81,9.16],[780.43,9.06],[748.16,9.13],[730.06,9.52],[704.88,10.34],[689.4,9.9],[719.05,10.06],[646.12,10.05],[665.79,9.65],[668.42,9.8],[735.57,10.61],[811.12,11.18],[778.59,10.52],[708.81,10.59],[710.91,10.18],[701.47,10.01],[693.86,9.79],[661.59,9.7],[673.66,9.68],[653.46,9.46],[614.38,9.87],[608.08,9.58],[608.87,9.04],[598.11,9],[602.57,9.09],[568.47,8.62],[616.74,8.76],[593.39,8.57],[595.49,8.7],[605.19,8.57],[569.25,8.21],[592.86,7.87],[573.45,7.68],[568.21,7.62],[570.83,7.88],[529.91,7.77],[537.25,6.94],[525.18,7.14],[468.26,6.77],[499.74,7.23],[501.57,7.16],[488.2,7.33],[460.39,7.34],[447.27,7.62],[420.51,7.83],[400,7.75],[408.45,7.63],[406.35,7.51],[417.1,7.92],[444.65,7.91],[440.45,8.17],[479.01,8.2],[485.83,8.13],[660.55,8.82],[573.19,8.46],[643.76,8.93],[645.33,8.81],[609.65,8.71],[603.88,8.72],[607.82,8.58],[600.47,8.55],[646.38,9.04],[627.75,8.83],[590.77,8.74],[609.13,9.15],[618.57,10.22],[655.04,10.21],[674.71,10.47],[666.32,11.37],[625.39,11],[578.7,10.72],[559.81,10.43],[598.11,10.55],[533.32,9.96],[581.32,10.09],[585.26,9.68],[584.99,9.59],[627.23,10.65],[614.38,9.88],[607.03,10.07],[606.24,10.55],[597.32,10.93],[588.14,11.12],[588.14,11.12],[573.71,11.7],[589.19,13.36],[618.05,14.51],[614.38,14.31],[639.56,13.79],[583.68,13.08],[554.04,12.71],[643.23,12.14],[660.28,12.88],[675.24,13.98],[674.71,12.44],[642.71,12.55],[609.92,11.63],[674.45,11.71],[765.48,12.57],[719.05,12.08],[666.84,10.08],[655.04,9.34],[672.61,9.46],[659.76,9.46],[661.33,9.36],[674.19,10.21],[619.62,10.3],[665.01,10.48],[795.12,10.49],[829.75,10.68],[854.67,11.11],[874.08,10.98],[831.58,10.65],[780.17,10.02],[791.71,10.13],[760.23,9.98],[807.71,10.41],[777.54,10.8],[748.95,10.53],[741.08,10.18],[741.87,9.43],[754.98,9.52]],"corr":-0.21},"cap":1727.6,"histMid":696.88,"extrap":false,"accuracy":{"name":"中煤能源","grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":16,"n":28,"mape":28.52,"dir":74.07,"bias":9.12,"dropped":0,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":92.86,"width":132.47},"byYear":{"2019":16.8,"2020":55,"2021":64,"2022":37.1,"2023":19.2,"2024":10.1,"2025":7.8,"2026":9.8},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":12,"front":46.84,"back":14.45,"backBest":13.41,"degrade":-32.39}}}],"quarter":{"primary":{"name":"宝丰能源","code":"600989","quarter":"2026Q4","window":{"start":"2026-10-01","end":"2026-12-31"},"totalDays":91,"elapsedDays":45,"remainDays":46,"elapsed":32.25,"remaining":32.33,"full":64.58,"low":41.85,"high":87.31,"fullAtMean":65.21,"elapsedUnit":2673.47,"liveUnit":2584.61,"perUnitNow":2037.22,"dailyVol":2.31,"prev":{"q":"2026Q3","ded":49.18},"qoq":31.31,"method":"lin_mul","model":{"r2":0.44},"variants":{"0":{"spread":{"lin":64.58,"log":47.67,"ens":56.13}}},"accuracy":{"grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":8,"n":28,"mape":21.35,"dir":77.78,"bias":3.01,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","coverage":75,"coveredUnit":{"min":1100.42,"max":2816.01},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":6,"front":21.23,"back":12.49,"backBest":12.49,"degrade":-8.74}}},"items":[{"code":"600989","name":"宝丰能源","grade":"B","method":"lin_mul","full":64.58,"qoq":31.31,"prev":{"q":"2026Q3","ded":49.18},"low":41.85,"high":87.31,"elapsed":32.25,"remaining":32.33,"accuracy":{"mape":21.35,"coverage":75}},{"code":"601088","name":"中国神华","grade":"A","method":"flat","full":135.78,"qoq":-14.67,"prev":{"q":"2026Q3","ded":159.13},"low":91.74,"high":179.82,"elapsed":67.14,"remaining":68.64,"accuracy":{"mape":17.39,"coverage":91.18}},{"code":"600426","name":"华鲁恒升","grade":"B","method":"lin_mul","full":12.33,"qoq":51.47,"prev":{"q":"2026Q3","ded":8.14},"low":6.1,"high":18.56,"elapsed":6.13,"remaining":6.2,"accuracy":{"mape":28.53,"coverage":75}},{"code":"601898","name":"中煤能源","grade":"B","method":"lin_mul","full":49.46,"qoq":7.76,"prev":{"q":"2026Q3","ded":45.9},"low":16.7,"high":82.22,"elapsed":24.55,"remaining":24.91,"accuracy":{"mape":28.52,"coverage":92.86}}],"lagTests":[{"shiftDays":0,"mape":25.07},{"shiftDays":7,"mape":24.94},{"shiftDays":14,"mape":24.93},{"shiftDays":28,"mape":24.85}],"lastData":"2026-11-13","shiftDays":0},"valuation":{"params":{"r":0.095,"g":0.02,"smoothYears":5,"scMed":1612.06},"items":[{"name":"宝丰能源","short":"宝丰","code":"600989","grade":"B","state":"偏低","dcf":2564.6,"mktcap":1498.94,"epv":2016.95,"peNormal":7.43,"pePctl":25.76,"normalProfit":201.7,"nowProfit":258.32,"fcfNorm":191.61,"conv":130,"reasons":["正常化利润 = 全样本「单吨扣非 ~ CTO 价差」回归（R²=0.44）在价差中枢 1612.06 元下的年化值 201.7 亿；当期年化 258.32 亿。","自由现金流按「扣非 × 0.95」估计：成熟期维持性开支与折旧摊销大致相当，只额外扣营运资金占用。近 20 季「经营现金流÷扣非」中位为 130%，说明折旧摊销占比高，不能直接拿经营现金流当自由现金流。","折现率 9.5%、永续 2%，前 3 年按 2% 过渡，利润倍数 13.38×，乘自由现金流系数后 12.72×。","销量按最近一季 2026Q3 披露营收 ÷ 当期烯烃均价折算，未计入在建产能投产。"],"impliedProfit":117.84,"impliedRatio":58,"impliedUnit":290.06,"normalUnit":1612.06},{"name":"中国神华","short":"神华","code":"601088","grade":"A","state":"偏高","dcf":6924.72,"mktcap":10844.72,"epv":5446,"peNormal":19.91,"pePctl":98.86,"normalProfit":544.6,"nowProfit":543.12,"fcfNorm":517.37,"conv":180,"reasons":["正常化利润 = 全样本「单吨扣非 ~ 煤价」回归（R²=0.49）在煤价中枢 622.51 元下的年化值 544.6 亿；当期年化 543.12 亿。","自由现金流按「扣非 × 0.95」估计：成熟期维持性开支与折旧摊销大致相当，只额外扣营运资金占用。近 20 季「经营现金流÷扣非」中位为 180%，说明折旧摊销占比高，不能直接拿经营现金流当自由现金流。","折现率 9.5%、永续 2%，前 3 年按 2% 过渡，利润倍数 13.38×，乘自由现金流系数后 12.72×。","销量按最近一季 2026Q3 披露营收 ÷ 当期煤价折算，未计入在建产能投产。"],"impliedProfit":852.57,"impliedRatio":157,"impliedUnit":890.97,"normalUnit":622.51},{"name":"华鲁恒升","short":"华鲁","code":"600426","grade":"B","state":"合理","dcf":557.33,"mktcap":497.19,"epv":438.32,"peNormal":11.34,"pePctl":39.58,"normalProfit":43.83,"nowProfit":49.32,"fcfNorm":41.64,"conv":150,"reasons":["正常化利润 = 全样本「单吨扣非 ~ CTO 价差」回归（R²=0.15）在价差中枢 1612.06 元下的年化值 43.83 亿；当期年化 49.32 亿。","自由现金流按「扣非 × 0.95」估计：成熟期维持性开支与折旧摊销大致相当，只额外扣营运资金占用。近 20 季「经营现金流÷扣非」中位为 150%，说明折旧摊销占比高，不能直接拿经营现金流当自由现金流。","折现率 9.5%、永续 2%，前 3 年按 2% 过渡，利润倍数 13.38×，乘自由现金流系数后 12.72×。","销量按最近一季 2026Q3 披露营收 ÷ 当期烯烃均价折算，未计入在建产能投产。"],"impliedProfit":39.09,"impliedRatio":89,"impliedUnit":null,"normalUnit":1612.06},{"name":"中煤能源","short":"中煤","code":"601898","grade":"B","state":"合理","dcf":2348.84,"mktcap":1727.6,"epv":1847.26,"peNormal":9.35,"pePctl":45.83,"normalProfit":184.73,"nowProfit":197.84,"fcfNorm":175.49,"conv":180,"reasons":["正常化利润 = 全样本「单吨扣非 ~ 煤价」回归（R²=0.67）在煤价中枢 622.51 元下的年化值 184.73 亿；当期年化 197.84 亿。","自由现金流按「扣非 × 0.95」估计：成熟期维持性开支与折旧摊销大致相当，只额外扣营运资金占用。近 20 季「经营现金流÷扣非」中位为 180%，说明折旧摊销占比高，不能直接拿经营现金流当自由现金流。","折现率 9.5%、永续 2%，前 3 年按 2% 过渡，利润倍数 13.38×，乘自由现金流系数后 12.72×。","销量按最近一季 2026Q3 披露营收 ÷ 当期煤价折算，未计入在建产能投产。"],"impliedProfit":135.82,"impliedRatio":74,"impliedUnit":451.79,"normalUnit":622.51}]},"drivers":{"day":{"spread":-249.42,"ole":-176,"coal":-73.42},"w4":{"spread":135.83,"ole":9.5,"coal":126.34}},"leadlag":{"n":388,"horizonWeeks":4,"rollWin":104,"start":"2016-10-07","asOf":"2026-11-13","variants":{"pctl":{"label":"按价差分位","unit":"%","curBand":4,"curX":83.81,"buckets":[{"lo":0,"hi":20,"n":129,"med":-1.11,"up":45},{"lo":20,"hi":40,"n":81,"med":2.01,"up":57},{"lo":40,"hi":60,"n":52,"med":2.68,"up":58},{"lo":60,"hi":80,"n":30,"med":-0.67,"up":47},{"lo":80,"hi":100,"n":96,"med":-0.27,"up":49}]},"oc":{"label":"按相对油头优势","unit":"元","curBand":4,"curX":92.38,"buckets":[{"lo":0,"hi":20,"n":76,"med":3.18,"up":58},{"lo":20,"hi":40,"n":62,"med":1.91,"up":56},{"lo":40,"hi":60,"n":67,"med":0,"up":49},{"lo":60,"hi":80,"n":87,"med":0.89,"up":57},{"lo":80,"hi":100,"n":96,"med":-2.92,"up":34}]},"mom":{"label":"按近 4 周价差变化率","unit":"%","curBand":4,"curX":82.86,"buckets":[{"lo":0,"hi":20,"n":91,"med":-0.21,"up":48},{"lo":20,"hi":40,"n":61,"med":0.77,"up":52},{"lo":40,"hi":60,"n":69,"med":1.48,"up":58},{"lo":60,"hi":80,"n":80,"med":-0.48,"up":48},{"lo":80,"hi":100,"n":87,"med":-0.72,"up":47}]}}},"accuracy":{"companies":{"600426":{"name":"华鲁恒升","grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":6,"n":28,"mape":28.53,"dir":62.96,"bias":3.77,"dropped":4,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":75,"width":101.02},"byYear":{"2019":22,"2020":30.4,"2021":27.9,"2022":32.3,"2023":51.6,"2024":47,"2025":32.7,"2026":33.9},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":0,"front":27.81,"back":21.86,"backBest":21.86,"degrade":-5.95}},"600989":{"name":"宝丰能源","grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":8,"n":28,"mape":21.35,"dir":77.78,"bias":3.01,"dropped":2,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":75,"width":70.39},"byYear":{"2019":6.2,"2020":26.6,"2021":19.7,"2022":42,"2023":42.5,"2024":12.6,"2025":11.7,"2026":25},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":6,"front":21.23,"back":12.49,"backBest":12.49,"degrade":-8.74}},"601088":{"name":"中国神华","grade":"A","model":"flat","window":4,"n":34,"mape":17.39,"dir":81.82,"bias":2.08,"dropped":2,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":91.18,"width":64.88},"byYear":{"2018":25.8,"2019":41.7,"2020":27.8,"2021":30.5,"2022":32.3,"2023":8.7,"2024":7.5,"2025":20.3,"2026":16.3},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":16,"front":33.01,"back":10.43,"backBest":10.43,"degrade":-22.58}},"601898":{"name":"中煤能源","grade":"B","model":"lin_mul","window":16,"n":28,"mape":28.52,"dir":74.07,"bias":9.12,"dropped":0,"span":"2016Q4~2026Q3","interval":{"coverage":92.86,"width":132.47},"byYear":{"2019":16.8,"2020":55,"2021":64,"2022":37.1,"2023":19.2,"2024":10.1,"2025":7.8,"2026":9.8},"nested":{"picked":"线性·价格","w":12,"front":46.84,"back":14.45,"backBest":13.41,"degrade":-32.39}}}},"cycleRef":{"peak":4137.66},"signals":[{"label":"三条路线","tone":"hot","main":"煤头 +2585 · MTO -1985 · 油制 -853","sub":"MTO 与油制同时亏损 —— 烯烃价格由边际产能成本托底"},{"label":"周期位置","tone":"warm","main":"73% 分位 · 高位","sub":"标准分 +0.7σ · 偏离 10 年中枢 +60%"},{"label":"13 周前瞻","tone":"cold","main":"-4 元 · 上涨 50%","sub":"历史同分位区间（60-80%）共 80 个周度观测"},{"label":"估值隐含","tone":"mid","main":"隐含价差 290 元","sub":"仅为当前的 11% · 历史 4% 分位"}],"alerts":[{"level":"alert","label":"MTO / 油制双亏","detail":"外购甲醇 MTO 每吨 -1985 元、油制 -853 元，两者同时为负；煤头一体化仍有 2585 元/吨毛利。这种结构历史上出现在烯烃价格的阶段性底部区域。"},{"level":"warn","label":"13 周动量 +67%","detail":"价差 13 周累计变化 +67.3%。动量本身对后续 20 个交易日的股价收益没有稳定区分度（见\"价差→股价\"一节的短周期分桶）。"},{"level":"info","label":"今日价差 -249.42 元","detail":"拆解：烯烃端 -176 元、煤价端 -73.42 元。"}],"gate":null,"historyNote":"煤炭为焦煤期货代理折算，非 CCTD 秦皇岛5500/BSPI 原值；生产环境建议接入 CCTD 获取真实动力煤。","historySamples":528}